The Province has just released its latest flood forecast. The highlights for Lake Manitobans include:
“The Assiniboine, Souris, Qu’Appelle and Saskatchewan Rivers are at risk of minor flooding. The risk of flooding is low in most other regions of the province including the Interlake region. The risk of major flooding is low for most Manitoba lakes with the exception of Whiteshell Lakes where there is a high risk of moderate flooding.”
and for the operation of the Portage Diversion and Shellmouth Reservoir:
“Minimal operation of Portage Diversion is also expected to reduce ice related damages in lower Assiniboine River. The Shellmouth Reservoir is being operated in consultation with the Shellmouth Liaison Committee members in order to reduce the risk of flooding in the Assiniboine River, at the same time providing sufficient storage for water supply and recreation.”
The weather is warming and the rivers are springing to life. The gauge level of Lake Manitoba is up to 811.51 feet but that is almost certainly wrong: the Westbourne gauge has risen sharply in the last couple of days and is likely reading too high. The real level is probably closer to last week’s 811.33 feet. Inflow from the Waterhen River is starting to rise reaching 396 cfs: that will soon start rising more quickly as the ice clears. The Whitemud River is now flowing again, jumping to 738 cfs this week. Outflow at Fairford is down slightly to 2,373 cfs. The gauge on Lake Winnipegosis is registering 830.94 ft. Flow on the Dauphin River is up from last week to 2,956 cfs. The level of Lake St. Martin has risen slightly to 799.43 feet. The flow on the Assiniboine has jumped to 2,112 cfs at Holland and 992 cfs at Headingly. The level of the Shellmouth Reservoir is up to at 1395.68 feet.
River update
Time: 9:00 AM March 29, 2020
Portage Diversion: closed
Assiniboine at Holland: 2,112 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 992 cfs
Waterhen: 396 cfs
Whitemud: 738 cfs
Fairford: 2,373 cfs
Dauphin: 2,956 cfs
Lake update
Time: 9:00 AM March 29, 2020
Steep Rock: 811.25 ft
Westbourne: 811.77 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 811.51 ft
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 799.43 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: 830.94 ft
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1395.68 ft
Environment Canada warns that the gauge readings are provisional, as they are not being validated, and to interpret numbers cautiously. The level of Lake Manitoba is down slightly on the week, to 811.33 feet. This is good news as there is ample room in the lake to accept inflow from the Portage Diversion if needed, and early forecasts for Assiniboine flows are encouraging. Inflow from the Waterhen River fell to just 332 cfs: that will soon start rising substantially as the ice begins to clear. Inflow from the Whitemud River is still a trickle but rising at 76 cfs. Outflow at Fairford is down slightly to 2,529 cfs. The gauge on Lake Winnipegosis is registering 830.73 ft. Flow on the Dauphin River is up slightly from last week to 2,666 cfs. The level of Lake St. Martin is unchanged on the week at 799.41 feet. The flow on the Assiniboine is 809 cfs at Holland and 763 cfs at Headingly. That will start rising in the near future as spring approaches. The level of the Shellmouth Reservoir is almost unchanged at 1395.58 feet.
River update
Time: 10:00 AM March 22, 2020
Portage Diversion: closed
Assiniboine at Holland: 809 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 763 cfs
Waterhen: 332 cfs
Whitemud: 76 cfs
Fairford: 2,529 cfs
Dauphin: 2,666 cfs Lake update
Time: 10:00 AM March 22, 2020
Steep Rock: 811.28 ft
Westbourne: 811.38 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 811.33 ft
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 799.41 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: 830.73 ft
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1395.58 ft
Example of disclaimer on website (for Holland Station on Assiniboine): B
“Because our Cableway is out of service, regular flow measurements to validate the information presented for these stations are no longer being conducted. The information presented is a provisional estimate so please exercise caution. Any on-going Issues with this data will be clarified when quality assured for final publication.”
Another week of little change in the Lake Manitoba basin. The level of Lake Manitoba is down slightly on the week to 811.36 feet. Inflow from the Waterhen River fell to just 371 cfs. Inflow from the Whitemud River remains a trickle at 64 cfs. Outflow at Fairford rose slightly to 2,571 cfs. The gauge on Lake Winnipegosis is back online and registering 830.76 ft today. Flow on the Dauphin River is up from last week to 2,627 cfs. The level of Lake St. Martin is almost unchanged on the week at 799.41 feet. The flow on the Assiniboine is falling, registering 629 cfs at Holland and 816 cfs at Headingly. The level of the Shellmouth Reservoir is almost unchanged at 1395.57 feet.
River update
Time: 2:00 PM March 15, 2020
Portage Diversion: closed
Assiniboine at Holland: 629 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 816 cfs
Waterhen: 371 cfs
Whitemud: 64 cfs
Fairford: 2,571 cfs
Dauphin: 2,627 cfs Lake update
Time: 2:00 PM March 15, 2020
Steep Rock: 811.31 ft
Westbourne: 811.41 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 811.36 ft
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 799.41 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: 830.76 ft
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1395.57 ft
The Lake Manitoba Lake St. Martin Outlet Channels project has advanced to the next phase of the assessment process, Infrastructure Minister Ron Schuler announced today.
“Completing this crucial climate-change adaptation project – a project that will provide certainty for many communities and families – is one of our government’s top priorities and I am proud of the work we have done to reach this stage,” said Schuler. “We are pleased to share the Environmental Impact Statement for public comment and we are eager to begin the next phase of the environmental assessment process, which is the technical review.”
In 2011, Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin reached record high water levels. The province has committed to building two permanent outlet channels to alleviate flooding in that part of the Interlake region.
“We have worked hard to achieve progress on this project, spent more than $50 million in consultation and preliminary engineering, design and preparation work,” said Schuler. “We are very pleased the federal government is committed to working together, and that we’re finally achieving progress on project timelines, while being respectful to all concerned.”
Before construction begins, the project requires federal and provincial regulatory approvals. Both governments will continue to engage in Crown-Indigenous consultations with all potentially impacted communities, and the province is in the process of signing consultation agreements with Indigenous communities.
During the next stage, set to begin immediately, the federal and provincial governments will be seeking feedback from subject matter experts, the public and Indigenous communities through the public registries to address further concerns and clarification.
“Jointly with our partners in the federal government, we will be investing resources to ensure meaningful consultation and co-ordination with Indigenous communities and other stakeholders,” said Schuler. “We are confident in the merits of the project and look forward to any feedback the federal government, Indigenous groups and communities, and stakeholders will provide.”
To date, the province has engaged with 39 Indigenous communities and groups identified by provincial and federal requirements, and is in the process of signing consultation agreements with 10 First Nation communities that will be impacted by the project.
Increasing frequency of severe weather and flood events creates an even more pressing need to put safeguards in place to protect communities and families, the minister said. Projects like these and other adaptation infrastructure, will help give communities and families their lives back while setting Manitoba on a course for greater security and economic certainty, he added.
The above news release from the Provincial Government is provided for you information. It outlines what should be the last hurdle before the channels are licensed and work begins. You may have to cut and paste to read information at the end of the article. The first link will help you understand the public input while the second will provide information about the project and process followed to complete the environmental review.
The second link is to the Winnipeg Free Press article following the government news release. I read both with astonishment that after $50 million spent on consultations with 39 Indigenous communities that the Grand Chief objects to not having been involved.
If anything those along the shores of Lake Manitoba should be indignant that they were not part of the process of the review and that no such review occurred following the flood of 2011 and enhancements at the Portage Diversion.
Likewise a group of our stakeholders should be indignant that their attempts to preserve the geo-tube installations failed with the Province and Municipalities. The overriding reason appears to be money. Because the Disaster Finance Assistance program has ended there is a cost to be borne to keep the tubes. Those few homeowners who sought to keep the protection from future flooding negotiated in good faith with their RMs to no avail. Many of these people had done what the contractor had suggested. They have back-filled, sodded and otherwise sought to beautify their property. Not only are they denied the right to protect their property but they stand to lose more money in the aftermath of the removal of the tubes.
It is fair to acknowledge that not all of our members wanted to keep the installations. However, given the expenses on consultation and many enhancements in infrastructure north of the lake, it is reasonable to conclude that our stakeholders deserved better.
It has been another uneventful week in the Lake Manitoba basin. The level of Lake Manitoba is unchanged on the week, remaining at 811.38 feet. Inflow from the Waterhen River remains low at just 487 cfs. Inflow from the Whitemud River is a trickle at 59 cfs. Outflow at Fairford fell to 2,331 cfs. The gauge on Lake Winnipegosis is offline after malfunctioning last week. Flow on the Dauphin River is almost unchanged from last week at 2,490 cfs. The level of Lake St. Martin is up on the week to 799.42 feet. The Assiniboine at Holland fell to 773 cfs. The flow downstream at Headingly is higher at 1,109 cfs. The level of the Shellmouth Reservoir is 1395.56 feet.
River update
Time: 9:00 AM March 8, 2020
Portage Diversion: closed
Assiniboine at Holland: 773 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 1,109 cfs
Waterhen: 487 cfs
Whitemud: 59 cfs
Fairford: 2,331 cfs
Dauphin: 2,490 cfs Lake update
Time: 9:00 AM March 8, 2020
Steep Rock: 811.30 ft
Westbourne: 811.46 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 811.38 ft
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 799.42 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: gauge malfunction
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1395.56 ft
It is another week of little change, but warming temperatures now hint that the spring freshet is not far off. The level of Lake Manitoba continues its slow decline, falling to 811.38 feet this morning. Inflow from the Waterhen River that has fallen to just 484 cfs. Inflow from the Whitemud River is a trickle at 49 cfs. Outflow at Fairford inched downward to 2,613 cfs. The gauge on Lake Winnipegosis appears to be malfunctioning, showing a five foot rise in water level since last week which doesn’t seem terribly likely. The gauge on the Dauphin River now appears to be functioning, registering a flow of 2,483 cfs. The level of Lake St. Martin is little changed from last week sitting at 799.34 feet today. The Assiniboine at Holland shows a flow of 1,010 cfs. The flow at Headingly is slightly higher at 1,183 cfs and has been rising since mid-week. The primary gauge on the Shellmouth Reservoir is behaving erratically, and is not giving the same reading as the secondary gauge, so there is no estimate this week.
River update
Time: 10:00 AM March 1, 2020
Portage Diversion: closed
Assiniboine at Holland: 1,010 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 1,183 cfs
Waterhen: 484 cfs
Whitemud: 49 cfs
Fairford: 2,613 cfs
Dauphin: 2,483 cfs Lake update
Time: 10:00 AM March 1, 2020
Steep Rock: 811.34 ft
Westbourne: 811.42 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 811.38 ft
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 799.34 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: gauge malfunction
Shellmouth Reservoir: gauge malfunction
Association of Lake Manitoba Stakeholders 