A report by the Province was reported on Wednesday. To read the report follow the link below.
Wetter than normal summer, lake flooding could be on the way for Manitoba: provincial report (CBC)
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Monthly Archives: June 2022
| Province has issued an alert for tomorrow morning |
We’ve been asked to advise that the Province has issues a HIGH WIND ALERT for tomorrow AM at Delta.
Here’s the link to the wind map:
Lake Manitoba update: June 25, 2022 by Dr. Scott Forbes
The Provincial June forecast for peak level of Lake Manitoba was 812.9 – 813.0 feet between June 24 and June 28:
We have now exceeded that forecast.
This morning, after the heavy rain yesterday and rain earlier in the week, the lake has risen to 813.04 feet and it will go higher as the rainwater drains off the landscape into the lake. The current level of the lake is well above the top end of its operating range (810.50 to 812.50 ft) and reaching flood level is no longer a remote possibility. In the short term, the lake will continue to rise until we get a stretch of hot dry weather. The good news is that flows on the Assiniboine are now falling, and the Portage Diversion is nearly closed, with a (negligible) flow this morning of just 174 cfs. But as Lake Winnipegosis (831.73 ft) rises, flow on the Waterhen River (the main river inflow to Lake Manitoba) is rising, reaching 4,979 cfs this week. As Lake Manitoba rises, outflow at Fairford rises, reaching 7,628 cfs this week. Flow on the Whitemud River is now falling, currently 1,971 cfs. Lake St. Martin rose this week to 800.50 ft: that is now a half foot ABOVE the top end of ITS desired operating range of 800.00 ft. Flow on the Dauphin River is up to 6,286 cfs, rising with the higher level of Lake St. Martin. Flow on the Assiniboine has crested and is falling, to 9,853 cfs at Holland and 10,241 cfs at Headingly. The level of the Shellmouth Reservoir fell this week to 1406.27 ft.
Right now long-range forecasts are a fool’s errand, as our erratic weather makes any forecast highly uncertain. But we only have 10-12 weeks of hot weather in front of us. If the remainder of the summer remains wet, we could be looking at very high lake levels on Lake Manitoba going into the fall. The worst flood in the last two centuries (higher than 2011) occurred not in the spring, but in the fall (of 1872). A wet fall could easily mean another flood on both Lake Manitoba (>814.00 ft) and Lake St. Martin (>801.00 ft).
River update
Time: June 25, 2022
Portage Diversion: 174 cfs
Assiniboine at Holland: 9,853 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 10,241 cfs
Waterhen: 4,979 cfs
Whitemud: 1,971 cfs
Fairford: 7,628 cfs
Dauphin: 6,286 cfs
Lake update
Time: June 25, 2022
Steep Rock: 812.92 ft
Westbourne: 813.15 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 813.04 ft
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 800.50 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: 831.51 ft
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1,406.27 ft
Extracted from the Environment and Climate Change Canada Real-time Hydrometric Data web site (https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/mainmenu/real_time_data_index_e.html) on June 25, 2022.
Lake Manitoba update: June 19, 2022 by Dr. Scott Forbes
The rain continues to fall and Lake Manitoba continues to rise. It is now 2/10ths of a foot above the top end of its operating range (810.50 to 812.50 ft), currently sitting at 812.70 feet this morning. With the higher lake level and the removal of stop logs at Fairford last week, outflow through the Fairford Water Control Structure rose to 7,416 cfs. Lake Winnipegosis is little changed from last week, sitting at 831.43 feet, slightly above its long-term average level. Flow on the Waterhen River is down this week to 4,273 cfs. Flow on the Whitemud River is up substantially to 3,260 cfs. Lake St. Martin rose this week to 799.91 ft, close to the top end of its desired operating range of 800.00 ft. Flow on the Dauphin River is up to 5,650 cfs with the higher level of Lake St. Martin.
The rain last week resulted in Assiniboine flows rising again, and as a consequence, flow through the Portage Diversion also rose again, back up to 4,944 cfs. Flow at Holland on the Assiniboine is 13,314 cfs, and 10,241 cfs at Headingly. Both have crested and are now falling. The level of the Shellmouth Reservoir fell this week to 1406.41 fs.
River update
Time: June 19, 2022
Portage Diversion: 4,944 cfs
Assiniboine at Holland: 13,314 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 10,241 cfs
Waterhen: 4,273 cfs
Whitemud: 3,260 cfs
Fairford: 7,416 cfs
Dauphin: 5,650 cfs
Lake update
Time: June 19, 2022
Steep Rock: 812.73 ft
Westbourne: 812.66 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 812.70 ft
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 799.91 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: 831.43 ft
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1,406.41 ft
Extracted from the Environment and Climate Change Canada Real-time Hydrometric Data web site (https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/mainmenu/real_time_data_index_e.html) on June 19, 2022.
 …”Complete the Channel, Mr. Minister!”
You may understand what this has to do with flood mitigation after reading the recent communication from the Federal Government to the Province regarding the Lake Manitoba – Lake St Martin Channels project. It seems like each year we put our trust in getting the ball moving but each year the target moves.
Navigate to page and scroll down to Latest Update to read the response in its entirety. https://iaac-aeic.gc.ca/050/evaluations/proj/80148
The former government built a channel in the wrong location to do any good for the residents of Lake Manitoba using emergency measures as the flood destroyed homes, property and displaced many. The channel was never used for its intended purpose nor were ‘reaches’ activated to help seasonal flooding in such places as Dauphin River.
It is evident in this case that haste truly does make waste. However, now have slowed to a snail’s pace. There have been three photo ops announcing funding for the channels going back to 2019 yet nothing productive has happened after years of consultation. We have seen a succession of Ministers and their deputies come and go making continuity a challenge. This communication from the Federal Government as accurate as it may be makes a mockery of a one-year environmental review given the fact that we are well past three years in real time. Yes, we understand that the ‘clock’ stops whenever investigation or research is required to address issues. But, at this rate it will be another three years plus before any work begins.
However, it is difficult to understand the lack of timely responses by Manitoba with issues that have previously been raised by Ottawa. Your executive met with Provincial planners in December 2019 and were briefed on these issues and assured that the information for most was readily available for an Environmental Impact Statement that is needed to licence the project. If it was available, why wasn’t it included in the initial statement? And after the countless meetings and consultations since, why have they chosen not to respond fully in the three years following? It is discouraging to think that paperwork is the roadblock to completing the project that all agree is vital for the protection of property owners.
The executive will continue to interact with government as it did in recent weeks past by suggesting that more water from the Assiniboine flow downstream to ease the flow diverted into Lake Manitoba. We advocated for adjustments at the Fairford Water Control System to increase outflows from the lake. The department understands, that without the channels, mitigation is limited and that wind events coupled with high water may be disastrous.
Lake Manitoba update: June 11, 2022
Lake Manitoba has now risen ABOVE its operating range (810.5 to 812.5 ft), currently sitting at 812.55 feet this morning. In response to the rising lake level, the province removed stop logs on Wednesday from the Fairford Water Control Structure, increasing outflow at Fairford to 6,569 cfs, up from 4,061 cfs last week. This will help slow the rise in lake level. But inflow to the lake still substantially exceeds even this increased outflow. What would help is a stretch of hot, dry weather to remove water from the lake by evaporation. During the hot weather of July and August, as much or more water leaves the lake by evaporation as leaves through Fairford.
Lake Winnipegosis is little changed from last week, sitting at 831.44 feet, above its long-term average level. That is important because it is the level of Lake Winnipegosis that drives the long-term level of Lake Manitoba via the primary inflow of the Waterhen River. Flow on the Waterhen has risen modestly this week to 4,626 cfs. Flow on the Whitemud River continues to fall, and is currently 1,833 cfs. The level of Lake St. Martin fell this week to 799.20 ft, and the lake remains within its operating range of 797.00 to 800.00 ft. Flow on the Dauphin River is currently 4,626 cfs. The level of the Shellmouth Reservoir rose moderately this week and appears to have peaked, sitting at 1406.73 feet.
The flow on the Assiniboine is falling, to 11,866 cfs at Holland and 9,782 cfs at Headingly. Flow on the Portage Diversion is falling as the Assiniboine flow falls, currently registering 2,055 cfs.
River update
Time: June 11, 2022
Portage Diversion: 2,055 cfs
Assiniboine at Holland: 11,866 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 9,782 cfs
Waterhen: 4,626 cfs
Whitemud: 1,833 cfs
Fairford: 6,569 cfs
Dauphin: 4,626 cfs
Lake update
Time: June 11, 2022
Steep Rock: 812.50 ft
Westbourne: 812.59 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 812.55 ft
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 799.20 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: 831.44 ft
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1,406.77 ft
Extracted from the Environment and Climate Change Canada Real-time Hydrometric Data web site (https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/mainmenu/real_time_data_index_e.html) on June 11, 2022.
Lake Manitoba update: June 4, 2022 by Dr Scott Forbes
This would have been inconceivable at the end of 2021, but it is now time to start talking about the ‘F’ word again. Lake Manitoba continues its rapid rise, and is now at the top of end of its operating range (810.5 ft to 812.5 ft) sitting at 812.46 feet this morning. It will NOT be possible to keep the lake inside its operating range for more than the next few days, and it now looks likely that the lake will reach 813.0 ft in June, especially if the Portage Diversion remains open. To put all this in perspective, once the lake rises above 813 feet, it is one to two MAJOR rain event/s away from reaching its flood level of 814.0 ft.
Outflow at Fairford is currently being restricted by the use of stop logs. It is possible to increase outflow by reducing the number of stop logs – there are currently 60 stop logs in place (max = 100): https://www.gov.mb.ca/mit/wms/fairford/pdf/stop_log_record.pdf
During flood conditions the number of stop logs can be reduced to zero.
Lake Winnipegosis is higher than last week, sitting at 831.42 feet, above its long-term average level. That is important because it is the level of Lake Winnipegosis that drives the long-term level of Lake Manitoba via the primary inflow of the Waterhen River. Flow on the Waterhen has risen to 4,379 cfs. Flow on the Whitemud River crested this week and is now falling, currently 3,489 cfs. Outflow at Fairford is little changed from last week at 4,061 cfs. The level of Lake St. Martin continues to rise, reaching 799.56 ft this week. Flow on the Dauphin River is currently 4,626 cfs. Water is being held back in the Shellmouth Reservoir, which has risen again this week to 1406.19 feet, up about 2 feet from last week
The flow on the Assiniboine at Holland is currently 14,514 cfs and falling. Some of that flow (5,050 cfs) continues to be diverted into Lake Manitoba through the Portage Diversion. According to the stated operating rules for the Portage Diversion, restricting flow on the Diversion does not occur until Lake Manitoba reaches 812.87 feet (that is 3/8ths of a foot ABOVE its operating range). Until then, restricting flow on the lower Assiniboine takes precedence. Normally flow is kept to between 8,000 and 10,000 cfs on the Assiniboine east of Portage, as there is seepage through the dikes that starts at about 8,000 cfs. That seepage results in some local flooding. If pushed, the Assiniboine can carry about 17,000 cfs between Portage and Headingly, but higher flows result in more and more localized flooding from seepage through the dikes and water backing up where creeks enter the Assiniboine. It should also be pointed out that increasing outflow through Fairford causes the level of Lake St. Martin to rise, and it too is now approaching the top end of its operating range (797.0 to 800.0 ft), currently sitting at 799.56 ft. As Lake St. Martin rises, the flow of the Dauphin River also rises. The Province is reluctant to increase outflow at Fairford when that is likely to cause flooding on Lake St. Martin. That is exactly where we are now. Preventing flooding on Lake Manitoba increases the likelihood of flooding on Lake St. Martin. That is why the ‘Emergency Channel’ (currently unusable) was built. And that is why we need new water control structures on both lakes.
It has been 11 years since the most expensive flood disaster in Manitoba history, and despite many, many promises, we are no better off in the control of the level of Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin than we were in 2010/11. Funding for new water control structures on Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin has been announced four times by various combinations of federal and provincial governments, yet we are not close to the start of construction on either channel. The project to use an appropriate metaphor, is stuck in the mud: $100 million in funding was announced by the PC government in the 2022 budget for this fiscal year for Lake Manitoba/Lake St. Martin project: it is doubtful that much if any of that money will actually be spent.
River update
Time: June 4, 2022
Portage Diversion: 5,050 cfs
Assiniboine at Holland: 14,514 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 10,347 cfs
Waterhen: 4,379 cfs
Whitemud: 3,489 cfs
Fairford: 4,061 cfs
Dauphin: 4,379 cfs
Lake update
Time: June 4, 2022
Steep Rock: 812.11 ft
Westbourne: 812.82 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 812.46 ft
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 799.56 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: 831.48 ft
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1,406.19 ft
Extracted from the Environment and Climate Change Canada Real-time Hydrometric Data web site (https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/mainmenu/real_time_data_index_e.html) on June 4, 2022.
Association of Lake Manitoba Stakeholders 