Portage Diversion reopens

MIT has reopened the Portage Diversion: the text of their press release is pasted below:

April 28, 2015
PROVINCE ADVISES PORTAGE DIVERSION WILL OPERATE TO MAINTAIN DOWNSTREAM FLOW ALONG ASSINIBOINE RIVER FROM PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE TO WINNIPEG

The Hydrologic Forecast Centre of Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation reports the Portage Diversion will be operated today to maintain a maximum flow of 12,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) down the lower Assiniboine River.

Flows coming along the Assiniboine River into the Portage Reservoir are forecast to peak at 13,000 cfs over the weekend. The average daily flow through the Portage Diversion will be 500 cfs over 14 days with an approximate peak flow of 1,000 cfs.

The operational forecast is based on a dry 10-day precipitation forecast. The Hydrologic Forecast Centre will continue to monitor weather conditions and update the operational forecast as necessary.

Lake Manitoba is currently at 813.23 feet, 0.73 ft. above normal operating range, but below flood stage for structures (814 ft.). Inflow to Lake Manitoba from the Waterhen River is currently at 8,200 cfs. Inflow to Lake Manitoba from the Whitemud River is currently at 300 cfs. Outflow from Lake Manitoba through the Fairford River is currently at 11,100 cfs.

Jim Collinson writes in WFP on a viable option for solving Flood Problems.

In today’s Winnipeg Free Press, Jim Collinson has written an editorial opinion piece which talks about a viable “pumping station” alternative to controlling flooding on Lake Manitoba. 

Jim is a respected consultant who works with both the federal and provincial governments across Canada. 

Click here to read

An Open Letter to ALMS members – Activity Update

April Update

The Board has met three times since the Annual General Meeting. We have re-affirmed that the management of Lake Manitoba is our main objective. In an attempt to influence policy-makers we have requested a meeting with Minister Kostyshyn to discuss the Portage Diversion, Fairford WCS and the proposed new outlet from Lake Manitoba.
At that meeting we will repeat that management of Lake Manitoba is dependent upon balancing inflow and outflow of water into Lake Manitoba; and that we do not want our problem solved at the expense of other communities. We will remind the government that a report commissioned by the Province recommended a range of operation between 810 and 812 cfs – consistently exceeded in the last five years. We will remind them that the current high lake level is a direct result of their policy to lower flows out of Fairford. We will express disappointment that both projects of Reach One and Reach Three have failed to operate as intended. The consequences of these failures are borne by communities and farms along the shores of Lake Manitoba, Lake St Martin and the Dauphin River.
The Board has reviewed an alternate plan to manage Lake Manitoba water levels. Once completed this concept will be reviewed with the Province and Federal representatives. There will be an opportunity for all ALMS members to be briefed on the plan and government response.

Efforts have been made to encourage other coalitions such as the Lake Manitoba Rehabilitation Committee, municipal representatives and Northern Bands to add to the choir of voices calling for an end to artificial flooding. Members were asked to meet with Conservative candidates to brief them on short and long term goals/concerns for the lake. Because the Legislature is back in session we will suggest questions that may be asked from the floor of the Assembly during Question Period. Recently Roger Gillis met with Steve Topping to discuss, and no doubt debate, issues related to Fairford and the Diversion.

We want to acknowledge the work done by Scott Forbes on our behalf. He continues to be a regular and respected contributor to op-ed pages in the Free Press. He provides daily analysis and up-dates on water flows in the Assiniboine watershed and has been helpful in planning efforts of the Board.

We share the frustrations of those who have been are living with high stress. We are anxious to meet with the Province to continue the struggle to bring about a managed Lake Manitoba.

Sincerely,
Jack King, President
for:
Scott Greenlay, Vice-President
Destiny Watt secretary
Alice Dent treasurer
Don Clarkson – past president
Directors at large – Harry Frederick, Jean Allard

Flood update: April 26, 2015

As the ice clears the lake is beginning to be affected by wind, making measures of lake level less precise. North winds have pushed water in into the south basin of the lake. The current level of Lake Manitoba is 0.04 feet higher than last week, sitting at 813.24 feet. A gauge calibration was performed over the last week so it is not clear whether the lake is actually higher or if the change is due to the calibration. In 2014, the level of the lake was 812.17 feet on April 26^th, more than a foot below the current lake level. In 2011, the lake was 813.66 feet on April 26^th and rising rapidly with the Portage Diversion wide open. The Diversion remains closed today.

The Waterhen gauge is now up and running and flows are registering at 8,119 cfs. This is more than twice as high as the long-term median flow of 3,700 cfs. The high flows on the Waterhen are due to the high level of Lake Winnipegosis and are keeping Lake Manitoba high. To put this in perspective, with flows on the Waterhen at 8,000 cfs, Lake Manitoba cannot fall below 812.25 feet. That is when the outflow at Fairford reaches 8,000 cfs. Lake Manitoba will remain high as long as Lake Winnipegosis remains high.

The outflow at Fairford remains high and is currently 11,120 cfs. The level of Lake St. Martin remains above flood level (801.0 feet) and is currently 801.38 feet.

Flow on the Assiniboine at Holland has been rising over the week and now sits at 11,684 cfs.

River update
Time: 8:30 AM April 26
Portage Diversion: closed
Assiniboine at Holland: 11,684 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 11,296 cfs
Waterhen: 8,119 cfs
Whitemud: 300 cfs
Fairford: 11,120 cfs
 
Lake update
Time: 8:30 AM April 26
Steep Rock: 813.16 ft
Westbourne: 813.32 ft
Mean level: 813.24 ft
Lake St. Martin: 801.38 ft

Flood update: April 19, 2015

Finally some good news. The Portage Diversion was closed on Thursday and the Fairford Water Control Structure is at last wide open – only 5 ½ months after its flows were restricted. Outflow at Fairford is now 11,300, cfs, which is the maximum possible at the current lake level.

Lake Manitoba peaked at 813.22 feet this week and has fallen slightly since then, sitting at 813.20 feet today. The gauge on the Waterhen River continues to malfunction so we do not have an accurate read on river inflows. However, at the current level of Lake Winnipegosis, Waterhen flows should be between 7,800 and 8,000 cfs. With flows on the Whitemud River very low, the net outflow from Lake Manitoba is about 3,000 cfs, or enough to drop the lake level 2 inches a month. Thus with dry weather we should see a steady albeit slow decline in the lake level.

With rising inflow from Fairford, the level of Lake St. Martin has begun to rise, and is up 0.14 feet on the week: it is now above the flood level of 801.0 feet. The emergency channel on Lake St. Martin, built to lower the level of Lake St. Martin, is not fully open.

Flow on the Assiniboine at Holland has fallen from a peak of over 13,000 cfs last week to about 11,000 cfs today.

River update
Time: 7:30 AM April 19
Portage Diversion: closed
Assiniboine at Holland: 11,014 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 11,296 cfs
Waterhen: gauge malfunctioning
Whitemud: 353 cfs
Fairford: 11,296 cfs
 
Lake update
Time: 7:30 AM April 19
Steep Rock: 813.21 ft
Westbourne: 813.19 ft
Mean level: 813.20 ft
Lake St. Martin: 801.15 ft

Flows increased at Fairford, decreased at the Diversion

Outflow at the Fairford Water Control Structure was increased to 10,100 cfs yesterday. And inflows at the Portage Diversion were reduced to a trickle, less than 300 cfs this morning.

Update to the Sunday update

Members of ALMS met with Steve Topping last Friday and received an update on the operation of the Portage Diversion and Fairford Water Control Structure and current water conditions. The plan is to increase flows on the Assiniboine east of Portage la Prairie and reduce flows in the Portage Diversion. Both started to happen this afternoon. Flows in the Diversion have dropped significantly from about 3,000 cfs this morning to about 2,000 cfs at 8:00 PM today. At the same time, flows out of the Portage Reservoir to the lower Assiniboine have increased.

Flow upstream at Holland peaked on April 10/11 and is now falling.

The plan is to fully open the Fairford Water Control Structure this week: this will take a couple of days and will increase the outflow from Lake Manitoba.

As to the correct flow rates, the numbers I posted Sunday were correct with one exception: the Waterhen River. The flow rates posted by MIT for the Assiniboine were too low.

The real flow on the Waterhen was 6780 cfs: the gauge has been providing erroneous readings during ice out. This helps to explain, in part, why Lake Manitoba rose so quickly last week. Higher flows on the Waterhen and substantial inflows from the Portage Diversion (now reduced) contributed in part to a 1/6^th of a foot rise in the lake last week.

Scott Forbes

Flood update: April 12, 2015

There remains uncertainty right now about water levels and flows. It does seem that MIT does not want us to know how much water is currently being sent into Lake Manitoba via the Portage Diversion. Their daily postings contain no information on flow rates in the Diversion while they do describe flows on the Assiniboine and lake levels. But it is the level of Lake Manitoba that provides strong hints about what is going. If the gauges are correct (they may not be), a great deal of water entered the lake over the last seven days, and it did not come from the Waterhen or Whitemud Rivers, and we had no significant precipitation.

There are now also large discrepancies between what MIT has posted for flow rates on the Assiniboine and the Environment Canada gauge readings (which have been recently calibrated) and projections made about flow rates earlier this week. The gauge readings match the predicted flows. The MIT reported flows do not. It is not clear why. MIT posted flow rates for Holland for the 10^th of March of 8,100 cfs: the gauge readings indicated a flow of 13,400 cfs. The Holland gauge indicates a discharge measurement on 10 April suggesting that the readings have been correctly calibrated. The higher flow rate matches what was predicted by MIT earlier in the week. A discharge measurement was conducted on 8 April at the Portage Diversion, indicating that the gauge had been calibrated. At the time, the gauge indicated a flow in the Portage Diversion of 7,400 cfs. That flow dropped sharply on 9 April to just over 2,800 cfs. This coincided with increased flows on the lower Assiniboine. Since then flows in the Portage Diversion have risen to nearly 3,800 cfs.

Lake Manitoba rose sharply over the week. Its level last Sunday was 813.01 feet. On 27 March, MIT forecast that the lake level would peak between 813.06 and 813.18 feet. It has now exceeded that upper value, sitting at 813.19 feet and is poised to rise higher. It appears that Lake Manitoba is rising toward flood level (814.0 feet) in the midst of a drought. Go figure.

At the current level of Lake Manitoba, an unrestricted outflow at Fairford should now be 11,000 cfs. However, because MIT has chosen to reduce outflows at Fairford over the winter, flows remain 2,500 cfs below that maximum flow. MIT indicated this week that they would be restoring full flows at Fairford. They have not yet done so.

River update
Time: 10:00 AM April 12
Portage Diversion: 3,777 cfs
Assiniboine at Holland: 13,414 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 9,460 cfs
Waterhen: 1,694 cfs
Whitemud: 406 cfs
Fairford: 8,472 cfs  

Lake update
Time: 10:00 AM April 12
Steep Rock: 813.21 ft
Westbourne: 813.17 ft
Mean level: 813.19 ft
Lake St. Martin: 801.03 ft

Lower Assiniboine flows increased – Portage Diversion decreased?

MIT indicated today that flows on the lower Assiniboine were being increased, and that the Fairford Water Control Structure would be fully opened. Up until now, flows on the lower Assiniboine were artificially held below 5,000 cfs with the surplus being diverted into Lake Manitoba via the Portage Diversion. MIT has not provided estimates of Portage Diversion flows in their updates, so we do not know how much water has been diverted into Lake Manitoba. The level of Lake Manitoba has risen substantially this week, and currently sits at 813.15 feet. It was 813.01 feet on Sunday.

As of 6:00 PM today, flows on the lower Assiniboine at Portage were increasing sharply, and its appears that flows in the Portage Diversion have decreased sharply. However, the gauge in the Portage Diversion has been providing unreliable readings since the Diversion opened two weeks ago, and it is not possible to tell what the current flow rate is. It does not appear that flows at Fairford have increased yet.

The full text of the media bulletin is provided below.

Scott Forbes

MEDIA BULLETIN RELEASED BY MANITOBA INFRASTRUCTURE AND TRANSPORTATION:

April 9, 2015

ICE FLOWING ALONG ASSINIBOINE RIVER

The Hydrologic Forecast Centre of Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation reports ice on the lower Assiniboine River has broken up over the past 24 hours and is now flowing freely all the way to The Forks.

The flow on the lower Assiniboine will be increased to 10,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) today. Flows into the Portage Reservoir will be closely monitored to determine if further adjustments to the operation of the Portage Diversion are required.

Flows along the Fairford River Water Control Structure (FRWCS) will be increased to maximum discharge as ice conditions will allow an increase downstream of the Fairford River, Lake St. Martin and the Dauphin River. The current flow through the FRWCS is 8,200 cfs. At maximum capacity the flow will be approximately 10,500 cfs.

Lake Manitoba is currently at 813.15 ft above sea level, above normal operating range but below flood stage for structures, which is 814 ft. Lake St. Martin is currently at 801.05 ft. Structures will be protected at this level by the emergency dike system and on properties that have permanent flood protection.

Lake Manitoba flood update: April 5, 2015

There is considerable uncertainty right now about water levels and flows given the effects of ice on the Environment Canada gauges. This should resolve itself once we reach the open water season. The readings reported below are therefore tentative.

The level of Lake Manitoba rose 0.06 feet last week and is now over 813 feet again. The MIT forecast is for the lake to reach between 813.08 and 813.18 feet.

Flows on the Waterhen River are uncertain due to the effects of ice on the gauges. Once the ice clears, at the current level of Lake Winnipegosis, flow on the Waterhen will reach 7,500 cfs. MIT forecasts that the level of Lake Winnipegosis will peak between 833.01 and 833.40 feet. At these lake levels, flows on the Waterhen River will reach between 8,000 and 9,000 cfs.

Flow at Fairford is now 8,000 cfs. At the current level of Lake Manitoba, an unrestricted outflow at Fairford should be 10,600 cfs. However, because MIT has chosen to reduce outflows at Fairford over the winter, flows are 2,600 cfs below what they should be if lowering the level of Lake Manitoba was a priority.

Tomorrow will be the five-month anniversary of the reduction in flows at Fairford. When MIT announced that flows at Fairford were to be reduced last November, they stated that flows would be restricted for a 6-week period only.

With restricted outflows at Fairford, the level of Lake St. Martin is now falling quickly currently sitting at 801.21 feet, more than a quarter of a foot below last week’s level.

The pattern of flow on the Assiniboine is unclear and quite possibly ice affected. Flows on the Assiniboine at Holland are now 6,000 cfs. Flow on the Assiniboine at Headingly is currently under 3,000 cfs. What is curious is that on April 1^st, the gauges indicated that flow at Headingly dropped sharply from about 6,000 cfs to under 3,000 cfs by the morning of April 2 and have remained near 3,000 cfs since then. If these values are accurate (and they may not be), it suggests that something happened and is continuing to happen between Holland and Headingly. The Portage Reservoir and Portage Diversion lie between Holland and Headingly.

Consistent with the drop in flow at Headingly, the level of the Portage Reservoir began to rise sharply on the 31^st of March, rising a meter over the next day. Some of the flow reduction at Headingly appears to be explained by storing water in the Portage Reservoir. The level of the reservoir peaked on April 2 and has remained relatively stable since then. Obviously, what is not going down the Assiniboine or being stored in the reservoir is going down the Portage Diversion.

River update
Time: 9:00 AM April 5
Portage Diversion: open – gauge ice affected
Assiniboine at Holland: 6,001 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 2,969 cfs
Waterhen: ice affected
Whitemud: 847 cfs
Fairford: 8,013 cfs
 
Lake update
Time: 9:00 AM April 5
Steep Rock: 813.06 ft
Westbourne: 812.96 ft
Mean level: 813.01 ft
Lake St. Martin: 801.21 ft