Lake Manitoba update: June 10, 2018

Strong winds are again making the estimates subject to considerable error. The current estimate of the level of Lake Manitoba is 811.80 feet. Flow on the Waterhen is being affected by SE winds on Lake Winnipegosis, and is down to to 6,286 cfs but that will increase when the wind subsides / changes direction. The gauge on Lake Winnipegosis is currently offline. Flow at Fairford is up to 6,710 cfs. Flow on the Whitemud River is is now down to 212 cfs. The level of Lake St. Martin fell this week and is back down to 800.20 feet. The flow on the Assiniboine is up this week: the gauge at Holland is offline, but the flow at Headingly has risen to 2,825 cfs. The Shellmouth Reservoir is up this week to 1403.67 feet.

River update
Time: 4:30 PM June 10, 2018
Portage Diversion: closed
Assiniboine at Holland: gauge offline
Assiniboine at Headingly: 2,825 cfs
Waterhen: 6,286 cfs
Whitemud: 212 cfs
Fairford: 6,710 cfs

Lake update
Time: 4:30 PM June 10, 2018
Steep Rock: 811.93 ft
Westbourne: 812.68 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 811.80
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 800.20 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: gauge offline
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1403.67 ft

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Lake Manitoba update: June 3, 2018

Strong winds are playing havoc with the gauges on the lakes and affecting river flows as a consequence, making the estimates subject to considerable error. It is likely that the level of Lake Manitoba rose on the week with the substantial rainfall in recent days, but the current estimate of the level of 811.93 feet seems high. I will update the estimate later in the week if winds calm. Flow on the Waterhen is up to 7,628 cfs but this has been affected by winds that have driven water into the south basin of Lake Winnipegosis that is up to 233.01 feet as a result. Flow at Fairford is down to 5,650 cfs, which is also wind affected. Flow on the Whitemud River is up this week with the rain and is now 290 cfs. The level of Lake St. Martin rose this week and is now back up to 800.39 feet. The flow on the Assiniboine is down from last week but has started to rise following the rain: the gauge at Holland is still malfunctioning, but the flow at Headingly is now down to 1,589 cfs. The Shellmouth Reservoir is up this week to to 1402.89 feet.

River update
Time: 6:30 AM June 3, 2018
Portage Diversion: closed
Assiniboine at Holland: gauge malfunction
Assiniboine at Headingly: 1,589 cfs
Waterhen: 7,628 cfs
Whitemud: 290 cfs
Fairford: 5,650 cfs

Lake update
Time: 6:30 AM June 3, 2018
Steep Rock: 811.78 ft
Westbourne: 812.04 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 811.93
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 800.39 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: 833.01 ft
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1402.89 ft

Lake Manitoba update: May 27, 2018

The level of Lake Manitoba is almost unchanged from last week, currently sitting at 811.80 feet. This suggests that the lake is very near its spring peak. Whether it rises further will now depend now on summer weather. Flow on the Waterhen is up to 7,098 cfs this week, while the flow at Fairford is down to 6,251 cfs. Flow on the Whitemud River is up this week with the rain and is now 219 cfs. Inflow from the two major rivers is about 1,000 cfs greater than outflow this week, which would result in a rise of 0.6” in a month. The level of Lake St. Martin rose this week and is now back up to 800.25 feet. Lake Winnipegosis is also up this week 832.33 feet, though the week to week changes on this lake are largely the product of shifting winds. The flow on the Assiniboine is also down this week: the gauge at Holland is still malfunctioning, but the flow at Headingly is now down to 1,766 cfs. The Shellmouth Reservoir is up this week to to 1402.26 feet.

River update
Time: 8:00 AM May 27, 2018
Portage Diversion: closed
Assiniboine at Holland: gauge malfunction
Assiniboine at Headingly: 1,766 cfs
Waterhen: 7,098 cfs
Whitemud: 219 cfs
Fairford: 6,251 cfs

Lake update
Time: 8:00 AM May 27, 2018
Steep Rock: 811.827 ft
Westbourne: 811.78 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 811.80
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 800.25 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: 832.33 ft
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1402.26 ft

Lake Manitoba update: May 21, 2018

The news on Victoria Day is all good. The current level of Lake Manitoba holding at 811.79 feet and unless weather conditions change dramatically, it looks like the lake will remain inside its operating range this summer. Flow on the Waterhen is down to 6,780 cfs this week, while the flow at Fairford is up to 6,639 cfs. Flow on the Whitemud River continues to drop and is now down to 184 cfs. Inflow and outflow are now nearly in balance and with the weather heating up, evaporation should start lowering the lake level if dry conditions persist. The level of Lake St. Martin continues to fall and is now down to 800.16 feet, which is just above the top end of its desired operating range (800.00 feet). Lake Winnipegosis is down this week to to 832.09 feet. The flow on the Assiniboine is also down: the gauge at Holland is behaving oddly and the readings look unreliable. The gauge at Headingly is reading 2,578 cfs. The Shellmouth Reservoir is up modestly this week to to 1401.74 feet.

River update
Time: 1:00 PM May 21, 2018
Portage Diversion: closed
Assiniboine at Holland: gauge malfunction
Assiniboine at Headingly: 2,578 cfs
Waterhen: 6,780 cfs
Whitemud: 184 cfs
Fairford: 6,639 cfs

Lake update
Time: 1:00 PM May 21, 2018
Steep Rock: 811.81 ft
Westbourne: 811.76 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 811.79
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 800.16 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: 832.09 ft
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1401.74 ft

Lake Manitoba update: May 13, 2018

The drought in southern Manitoba continues. The current level of Lake Manitoba is not known as the gauge at Westbourne is offline. The level at Steep Rock is up to 811.86 feet but this level appears wind affected. Flow on the Waterhen rose to 7,063 cfs this week. Flow on the Whitemud River continues to drop and is now down to 233 cfs. Outflow at Fairford is now up to 5,650 cfs, but this may be wind affected as well, reflecting the lake level near Steep Rock. The level of Lake St. Martin continues to all and is now down to 800.33 feet. Lake Winnipegosis is up slightly to 832.35 feet remaining roughly two feet above its long-term average level. The flow on the Assiniboine at Holland fell to 4,662 cfs and 3,955 cfs at Headingly (the Holland gauge reading, however, looks odd and may not be accurate). The Shellmouth Reservoir rose to 140.05 feet – it looks like the reservoir may be near its peak, as the rise appears to be leveling off.

River update
Time: 3:00 PM May 13, 2018
Portage Diversion: closed
Assiniboine at Holland: 4,662 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 3,955 cfs
Waterhen: 7.063 cfs
Whitemud: 233 cfs
Fairford: 5,650 cfs

Lake update
Time: 3:00 PM May 13, 2018
Steep Rock: 811.86 ft
Westbourne: gauge offline
Mean level Lake Manitoba: Westbourne gauge offline
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 800.33 ft
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: 832.35 ft
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1401.05 ft