Lake Manitoba update: Oct. 29, 2017

Strong northwest winds are pushing water south and east on the lakes this morning. The mean level of Lake Manitoba is right at the top end of the operating range of 812.50 feet. The lake is remaining stubbornly high with high water levels upstream on Lake Winnipegosis keeping Waterhen River flows high which in turn keeps Lake Manitoba high. The long-range outlook for the lake will be conditional on what the province does with the Fairford Water Control Structure over winter. If it is left wide open, the lake should fall reducing the risk of flooding next spring. If Fairford flows are reduced to prevent frazil ice formation on the Dauphin River, as is customary, the lake will remain high and near the top end of the operating range over winter. The average rise of the lake during the spring freshet is 6” to 18” and the top end of the operating range is just 18” below the flood level of 814.0 feet. This leaves little margin for error. Damage to property along the lake rises sharply at lake levels over 813.0 feet. If the lake remains at the top end of the operating range at the end of winter, we are likely to see lake levels over 813.0 feet next spring and summer.

Fairford flows are affected by the winds and are currently 7,769 cfs. Waterhen flows are also affected by the wind and roughly the same at 7,769 cfs. The current northwest winds drive Waterhen flows up and Fairford flows down. Lake Winnipegosis remains high, though the exact level is unclear also being affected by the strong winds: the current gauge reading is 833.01 feet. That level is 2.6 feet higher than the average level for this time of year of 830.4 feet. The level of Lake St. Martin is currently 801.67 feet. Flow on the Whitemud River is down to 60 cfs. Flow on the Assiniboine is 929 cfs at Holland and 1148 cfs at Headingly.

River update
Time: 11:00 AM October 29, 2017
Portage Diversion: closed
Assiniboine at Holland: 929 cfs
Assiniboine at Headingly: 1,148 cfs
Waterhen: 7,734 cfs
Whitemud: 60 cfs
Fairford: 7,769 cfs

Lake update
Time: 11:00 AM October 29, 2017
Steep Rock: 812.34 ft
Westbourne: 812.66 ft
Mean level Lake Manitoba: 812.50 ft
Lake Manitoba desired operating range: 810.5 to 812.5 ft
Lake St. Martin: 801.67
Lake St. Martin desired operating range: 797.0 to 800.0 ft
Lake Winnipegosis: 833.01 ft
Shellmouth Reservoir: 1399.77 ft

One thought on “Lake Manitoba update: Oct. 29, 2017

  1. Time to drain Shellmouth Reservoir!
    My Father drilled relief wells during the construction of the flood control structure. I was very young at that time our whole family stayed in Inglis during my father’s part of that project. Spent time fishing and swimming had fun as a little boy OLD JR

    Like

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